2022 NBA Draft Breakdown - A.J. Griffin
One of the draft's biggest mystery men. Can the Duke product put it all together?
There are tons of question marks in this draft class and far too few surefire selections. One of the biggest mystery men in this draft is none other than Duke’s A.J. Griffin, a former five-star recruit that averaged 10.4 points and 3.9 rebounds while hitting 49.3% of his shots from the floor and 44.7% of his 4.1 three-point attempts per game.
Opinions are ultimately split on Griffin. There was a time at one point in the season when Griffin was getting top-five buzz, which seems highly unlikely that this point in the process. Griffin should still be a surefire bet to go in the lottery, but it’s incredibly hard to project what he can be at the next level.
But why is Griffin such a hard read in this class?
It all comes back to a knee injury that Griffin faced before his first and only collegiate season which set him back for quite a while and could explain some of his shortcomings as a prospect, but it’s also entirely possible that these shortcomings are simply just that. If Griffin hits his ceiling, a top-five selection wouldn’t look so crazy, but there’s no telling what he can be.
Let’s start with what Griffin does well, his ultimate selling point being his three-point shot. Griffin is fantastic on catch-and-shoot situations, nailing just under 50% of such shots. The Duke product is great at stepping into his shots and getting up over opposing defenses with an amazing upper-body form. He’s effective from the corners, tending to run to that spot in fast-break situations, but really, he can knock it down from wherever and flashed a real ability to hit deep threes.
Griffin has a 6-foot-7 frame complete with a 7-foot wingspan, which makes his quick release enticing for teams. Further, he can really move around and get shots up at a fast rate and can do so coming off screens. This extends to the mid-range as well, where Griffin has a real bag. Griffin can hit turn-around jumpers like few others in this class and he can hit out of dribble handoff and pick-and-pop situations. He’s also incredibly effective at hitting both mid-range and threes off the dribble.
The Duke product also doesn’t require his plays to be made for him, as he’s an incredibly gifted isolation scorer, going out on an island to punish opposing defenses or can go out one-on-one. Griffin can play through contact and get shots up over tight defenses, usually punishing them. He can also drive with both hands and score under the basket, just an absolutely fearless scorer in that regard.
Griffin’s ability to absorb contact like that is what separates him from just being a pure shooter and puts him in the category of players that can really create their own offense. It’s like poetry in motion. Despite being an 18-year-old prospect, Griffin analyzes the floor well and knows how to make his reads and break through the cracks of defenses. He probably won’t play there at the next level, but Griffin can bang down low against opposing bigs, strong enough to not get backed down in the paint.
However, Griffin does get blown by on defense by quicker players. The added bulk that Griffin has sacrifices some speed and he lacks a good first step to stop faster players, including posts. Griffin tries hard on defense but he can overdo it at times, resulting in awful fouls or sloppy possessions where he gets crossed up or just looks completely lost. When he was on the court with better defensive players in Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore Jr., Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero, Griffin was relentlessly targeted and was the obvious weak spot.
While his frame indicates that he can transform into a positive defender and turn himself into a three-and-D player, he’s far from that at the next level. Mentally, Griffin can get himself lost and be unsure of where to be on the defensive side of the ball, which is a complete contrast to his offensive sets. Further, he would often lose track of his man and was a complete zero on help defense sets.
Another glaring issue with Griffin is that while his upper body shot form looks great, he has a strange tendency to step wide on his shots, resulting in an awkward form. Having suffered the aforementioned knee injury earlier in his career, a shot form like that could lead some teams to have concerns about Griffin stepping on a defender and hurting his leg again.
But those injuries are definitely critical in defining what kind of prospect Griffin is viewed as. Do the injuries explain the awkward shot form, lack of explosiveness at and above the rim and slowness on defense? Or are those traits stuck in the mud? And do enough teams buy the defense coming along with an elite shot-making talent? It’s hard to say.
I like Griffin’s fit in the mid-to-late lottery and honestly I wouldn’t completely hate it if the Indiana Pacers ended up being the team to take Griffin, because I think playing alongside somebody like Tyrese Haliburton would do wonders for Griffin. My current projection is the New Orleans Pelicans if that pick isn’t traded but outside of that, I have no idea what team would bite.