2022 NBA Draft Breakdown - Caleb Houstan
Former top-15 recruit that disappointed in his first year. Does he have an NBA future?
In this edition of the 2022 NBA Draft Breakdown series, I’m taking a look at Michigan’s Caleb Houstan. In the 2022 draft, there are multiple players that can be labeled as “pre-draft” guys. For instance, Josh Primo of the San Antonio Spurs had second-round optics last year after showcasing elite athleticism but lackluster stats as a one-and-done at Alabama. A great showing at the NBA Combine led to a lottery selection for Primo but he spent a large portion of the season in the G League, with the knowledge that the Spurs would slowly bring him along. This draft class has roughly 10-15 of those guys: Houstan, Michigan State’s Max Christie, Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr., UCLA’s Peyton Watson, Notre Dame’s Blake Wesley, Memphis’s Josh Minott, Duke’s Trevor Keels, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens and a few others.
Some of those prospects are far more ready than others and Houstan is one of just a handful that seems poised for a first-round selection. Recent rumblings from The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie and other reporters indicate that Houstan, who ended up opting out of the NBA Combine, may have a first-round promise, with many speculating the Oklahoma City Thunder to take him with their third first-round pick at No. 30.
So, what kind of player is Houstan?
Houstan averaged 10.1 points and four rebounds in 32 minutes per game for the Wolverines, shooting 38.4% from the field and 35.5% on five deep-ball attempts per game. Outside of that, Houstan’s stats look pretty lackluster (including the field-goal percentage). For starters, Houstan’s defensive stats are terrible, averaging 0.9 stocks per game and a 106.8 defensive rating, the latter of which ranks worse than most other draftable players. Out of NCAA D1 players with a realistic chance of being drafted, only Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, N.C. State’s Dereon Seabron, Georgetown’s Aminu Mohammed (another “pre-draft” guy), Christie and McGowens have a worse defensive rating. His 1.2 defensive box plus/minus is also poor.
However, this isn’t to say that Houstan is a total dud defensively, even if the numbers work against him. Houstan’s wingspan and physical attributes will always make him an appealing defensive piece and he has real three-and-D upside. The Michigan product plays with good foot speed and has the kind of energy you want in a defensive wing, even if some of his defensive possessions were sloppy.
At this stage of his offensive career, Houstan is a shooter. Having made 60 total threes at Michigan, Houstan is as smooth a shooter as they come. His makes from distance are clean and he does just about everything you’d want from a shooter. In the corner, Houstan is a madman, hitting down shots like he’s P.J. Tucker and that shot-making skill in the corner extends to almost behind the backboard. Houstan is great at hitting over defenders, using his length to his advantage. At 6-foot-8 and a near-7-foot wingspan, Houstan is the exact kind of shooter you want spacing the floor for your team. The Michigan product even showed off some range from well beyond the arc. However, one overall weakness in Houstan’s game is his ability to create off the dribble, something he will need to master to become an effective scorer in the league.
Something else that’s appealing about Houstan is the fact that he played over 30 minutes per game as an 18-year-old frosh that reclassified. Speaking of his reclassification to the 2021 class, Houstan’s offensive numbers and touch were especially ahead of the curve and there’s reason to believe his high mileage will make him an instant role player that can develop into a legitimate All-Star. Despite playing such a heavy workload, Houstan never takes plays off and is always there to punish opposing defenders.
All of this makes Houstan sound like he should be a lottery pick and not a fringe first-rounder, so what puts Houstan in that latter category? There are four main areas that Houstan needs to improve: his bulk, his decision-making, his explosivity and his rebounding.
The reason Houstan is such a risky swing is because a failure to develop these traits makes Houstan nothing more than a role player at best, and there are countless guys in the league who can get shots up at a high rate. If Houstan doesn’t bulk up, he will get bullied by offensive players no matter how hard he tries. And while Houstan is a good shot-maker, he’s prone to put up some ugly shots and can go cold, which is why his field-goal percentage ended up being subpar. For his size, Houstan only averaged four rebounds per game and just wasn’t as dynamic an athlete at the rim as you’d like to see from a first-round guy.
Out of all the “pre-draft” guys, Houstan is one of the few that I’d feel good about selecting in the first round if you believe in your team’s developmental staff. That’s why I love the rumor that the Thunder appear to be targeting him. In last year’s draft, Oklahoma City took Tre Mann in the first, despite several questions about his fit in the NBA and quickly developed him into a core piece for their rebuild. A team like OKC could do the same thing with Houstan.