We’re finally coming down the home stretch of the 2022 NBA Draft cycle and I couldn’t be more excited. That means we are going to take a look at the top of the draft, the players expected to hear their names called first.
Interestingly, this is a position that I couldn’t make a final decision on until the last possible second. I truly believe that Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren and Auburn forward Jabari Smith are the 1A and 1B in this draft class.
So what made me settle on Holmgren as the top guy?
Well, my school of thought involving the top overall pick is taking a swing on the guy with the highest possible upside and the best chance to be a superstar in this league. Obviously, there are times when teams overthink and end up making a mistake they regret for years to come. But I really don’t think Holmgren will be that if he ends up in the right situation. Holmgren has the highest ceiling of any player in the 2022 NBA Draft class with the potential to be an All-NBA center and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, seeing as he’s equipped with a 7-foot figure and a 7-foot-6 wingspan. Yes, Duke forward Paolo Banchero, Purdue guard Jaden Ivey, Smith and several other players have higher floors than Holmgren. Yes, the frail frame is a worry. But Holmgren has the fewest holes in his game out of any prospect, even if they may not all come to fruition on the court right away.
In his lone season at Gonzaga, Holmgren was a complete force on both ends of the floor. Holmgren averaged 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals and 3.7 blocks per game in just 26.9 minutes of play. Holmgren shot a ridiculous 60.7% from the floor, 39% from deep on 3.3 attempts per game and led the class in two-point percentage, connecting on 73.7% of such shots. The advanced stats tell the same dominant story of Holmgren. He was near the top of the class in win shares, player efficiency rating, net rating, HAKEEM percentage, box plus/minus, true-shooting percentage and effective field-goal percentage. You name it, Holmgren had an impressive showing, something no other player in the class can say.
Offensively, Holmgren brings the whole package. He can bring the ball up the court, boasting a fine assist-to-turnover rate and he can pass the ball out of the paint. Grabbing and going in transition for a big of that size is one of the rarest skills you can see in organized basketball and Holmgren possesses it. There are times when Holmgren hawks down a block and almost unfairly seamlessly gets it to the other end of the court for an easy score. Holmgren doesn’t just pass out of the paint, he can pass in fast-break situations too when running the floor. There were plenty of times when he acted as Gonzaga’s de-facto point guard. Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant, there aren’t many guys at the next level that have the size, athleticism and skill that Holmgren showcased at Gonzaga. Speaking of Durant, Holmgren shows flashes of that kind of offensive upside when he pulled up from downtown off the dribble for an easy bucket.
Speaking of that, Holmgren is an elite shooter for his size. No one with a 7-foot-6 wingspan should be able to shoot lights out like Holmgren can and even though he isn’t the best shooting big in this class, Smith is, there’s a lot to like about how smooth he is off the dribble. Holmgren even showed off an element of a step-back game in his arsenal.
The most unfair advantage Holmgren’s wingspan gives him is around the rim, however, and that’s where he will thrive once he continues to build strength at the next level. When he gets going in transition, it’s simply impossible to stop him. Imagine Holmgren with a few pounds added on. What defender can you really say is going to stop him? There just isn’t anybody that could do so at the collegiate level, hence his phenomenal shot percentage at the rim. When he’s driving Holmgren isn’t limited to just going up with it, he can kick it out, but even when you think you’ve backed Holmgren into a corner defensively, he’ll pull a spin move and dunk right on your head.
Then, of course, Holmgren thrives in a traditional big’s role. He’s a huge lob threat that can get passes from near halfcourt and flush them down. Holmgren is always threatening to score from the dunker spot and he’s exactly what you would want from a roll man. Holmgren has a nice bounce and can really get up above the rim in combination with his insane wingspan. If Holmgren goes No. 2 overall to the Oklahoma City Thunder as expected, he will thrive with the playmaking chops of guys like Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Another area fans will fall in love with Holmgren’s game is on second-chance opportunities, where he could take advantage of missed shots from his young teammates and either get putback dunks or get the ball back out to his squad.
Holmgren’s offensive bag also extends to the mid-range, where he is a fan of the turnaround jumper and can score over opposing defenders with ease. When combined with the fact that he’s capable of dribbling and scoring with both hands, you start to have nightmares if he’s your man. Holmgren is going to also be a solid spot-up shooter in the league and is capable of hitting from the corners or baseline.
On defense, the numbers speak for themselves. Holmgren is one of the best rim protectors I’ve ever evaluated, averaging a ridiculous 3.7 swats per game. There is a metric ton of tape consisting of Holmgren not only swatting shots but also forcing offensive players to make a different move out of fear of getting blocked. Holmgren’s defensive presence is so phenomenal that he alters shots by simply being on the court. Even though he didn’t athletically test at the NBA Combine, Holmgren’s standing reach is absurd and he can block shots with little to no effort.
But Holmgren is a much more versatile defender than just being a rim protector. Holmgren’s defense absolutely extends to the perimeter. The 7-foot Gonzaga product altered a ton of jump shots in college using his length and has the footwork to not get beat one-on-one, sliding well and forcing drivers into tough spots consistently. Holmgren played guard before he hit his growth spurt and you can see that he’s aware of the kind of tendencies guards have. When they try a step-back to create space, Holmgren anticipates it and comes away with the rejection. When guards try to speed up and beat him at the rim, he knows they’re prone to mistakes and is able to poke the ball away with his elite hand speed and footwork.
To complete the package, Holmgren is a fantastic rebounder. There aren’t any loose balls that are going to go past him on the boards if he can help it and as we’ve discussed, he’s great on the offensive glass as well.
The elephant in the room that prevents Holmgren from being one of the best prospects basketball has ever seen is his strength. Holmgren is ridiculously skinny, coming in at 194 pounds. Opposing bigs in the league will be able to eat his lunch if Holmgren doesn’t get bigger. Outside of that, Holmgren’s other weakness is beating guys in one-on-one situations with the ball in his hands. But for all he does well, that last point feels like a nitpick.
Circling back to Holmgren’s strength, I’ve heard a few different skeptics on the topic. Some detractors say Holmgren could get injured. Well, he doesn’t have an injury history to be wary of. Green flags on that front. As for the weight, people are acting like we’ve never seen a prospect put on weight before and succeed. Also, we are talking about professional NBA coaching staff and athletic trainers. If he puts in the work, there’s no question Holmgren can bulk up. When Giannis Antetokounmpo came into the league, he also weighed just 196 pounds. Even though he was a couple of inches shorter, Giannis turned it around and became known as the “Greek Freak,” exhibiting some of the same strengths as Holmgren.
There’s a chance this blows up in a team’s face. But there’s no real reason to believe that. For his extraordinary talents, Holmgren is my No. 1 overall prospect in the 2022 NBA Draft class.