Auburn forward Jabari Smith is the favorite to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Orlando Magic. Even though he’s my No. 2 overall prospect, it’s well-deserved for a class I truly believe is a 1A/1B class, with Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren holding the top spot on my board.
Smith is a 6-foot-10 forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, averaging 16.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, two assists and 2.1 stocks per game while shooting 42% from downtown on 5.5 attempts per game. In his lone season at Auburn, Smith made 79 total threes and shot just under 80% from the foul line.
Out of everyone in the 2022 NBA Draft class, Smith is the guy I’m most confident will average over 20 points per game at some point in his career. Even though he may have a lower ceiling than Holmgren, he still has an incredibly high floor and should be a multi-time All-Star by the time his career is over. The best pro comparison I can muster for Smith is that of Rashard Lewis, who was a two-time All-Star that had three seasons averaging over 20 points per game and shot over 38% from deep in his career.
Smith is a tremendous scoring option, primarily as a catch-and-shoot power forward that will be a dream come true for any point guard that plays next to him. In pick-and-pop situations, Smith stands out as a guy that can knock down from anywhere around the arc. Smith has a textbook shooting form, it’s smooth, it’s fluid, there aren’t any hitches anywhere in the shot, the release is quick, it’s everything you look for in a shot and it’s coming from a guy who’s the height of a small-ball center. Smith has some games where he just lights up the court from downtown and can get the shot to fall from some absurd distances or against smothering coverage.
The Auburn product doens’t take a ton of time to set his feet, which makes him all the more valuable as a movement shooter and somebody that can connect off screens. It isn’t just off the three-ball where Smith can torch you, he can do some damage with his middy and can pull up from just about anywhere inside the arc. Smith’s turnaround jumpers on the baseline are especially impressive.
Smith’s shooting is just so deadly because of the lack of time it takes for him to get the shot off and the fact that he requires almost no space to get a clean-looking jumper off that goes in at a high rate.
On defense, Smith thrives in on-ball situations, using his length. Smith averaged over a block and steal per game which is impressive in itself, but he does a really good job of cornering drivers into bad decisions. I like how Smith defends with his chest, squaring up and not allowing opposing players to score easily in the post. I can see a world where Smith defends smaller wings on the ball, as he’s able to stay in front of drivers at a high rate. Laterally, Smith slides well and forces players to pass out of drives all too often and disrupts a high number of jump shots and isn’t easily fooled by fakes or stepbacks.
Even though these talents make Smith a safe bet for success, there is still some room for concern in his game. For one, Smith doesn’t really have a complete bag. While he can hit some ridiculous shots, he doesn’t create a ton of space for himself. Smith’s handle is poor, and even though he showed flashes of being able to drive to the rim, that’s not a trusted part of his arsenal just yet. Smith doesn’t create for his teammates well and isn’t much of a passer at this stage of his career. I think Smith can develop into a better playmaker than he advertised in college, but he just doesn’t have a dribble move and is guilty of some ugly turnovers.
Despite the fact that Smith isn’t a fluid athlete by any stretch, any team in the top four of the draft should feel good about landing him. There aren’t many players in the world that can hit shots the way Smith can and when he’s hot, he’s impossible to guard. The Orlando Magic at No. 1 seems to be the safest bet for Smith and he fits in there well with Orlando’s plethora of playmaking guards and the fact that he can make for an interesting inside-out two-big setup alongside Wendell Carter Jr.