2022 NBA Draft Breakdown - Jaden Hardy
Former top-five prospect who faced some efficiency and defensive concerns in the G League. Can he build up top-five hype again?
I won’t lie to you, Jaden Hardy of the G League Ignite is one of the hardest evaluations in this class. I constantly have teetered on whether I buy into him as a player or if I would steer clear due to his frustrating tendencies. It also doesn’t help that the G League Ignite only has one year’s worth of players playing in the NBA, making it hard to get a read on any player hailing from the program.
But ultimately, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix — the G League’s class from last year — played well at the next level and exceeded expectations in some ways.
Hardy was tasked with a ton in his one year with the Ignite — how many other players can you say were the premier scorer and ball-handler for a team full of professional-level players?
Many detractors of Hardy will say that his ugly shooting percentages combined with a lack of ability to play defense and his poor first-half-of-the-season playmaking should tank his stock to the end of the first round. But I went back and looked at that class of Ignite players from last year and it made me less concerned about poor shooting percentages, especially considering how guys like Kuminga and Nix performed. I also considered the sheer level of competition these guys were matched up with. I mean, it’s a tall ask for essentially college freshman and high school seniors to play against guys like Lance Stephenson, Isaiah Thomas and Nik Stauskas (all guys who ended the year on NBA rosters and were on just one team) and put up high efficiency, let alone solid tape.
In his lone season in the G League, Hardy averaged 17.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, which are absolutely spectacular stats on the surface, though he shot 35.1% from the floor and 26.9% on his deep-ball attempts.
Hardy has a bag as a scorer. He can punish you in isolation, off the dribble and is especially effective as a pull-up shooter, able to hit from way downtown. Hardy also has a tremendous step-back game that will translate nicely to the next level. Going under on Hardy is a mistake because he punishes defenses that give him even a little bit of space.
As I said, Hardy’s shooting numbers work against him in scouting reports but he’s a phenomenal shooter when he’s on fire, he can’t be contained. I think Hardy is capable of being the kind of guy that hits around 38-40% of his threes in the NBA. Hardy’s mechanics are sound and his jumper looks pretty. It’s a fluid shot and I buy that aspect being the first in his game to come along at the next level.
Hardy can also step and go at any time, beating less capable defenders with methodical drives to the rim, going at the center of guys’ bodies. Hardy didn’t have tons of plays set up for him as he was the primary ballhandler of the Ignite but he was capable in isolation. Though Hardy isn’t an explosive vertical athlete, the dunks he did have were powerful and fun to watch. He can overpower defenders when he wants to.
Hardy’s handle is truly special to watch and he came on as a playmaker more as the year went on, cleaning up some poor decisions. It’s hard to know for sure if that was a sign of progression or just a hot streak but if he can become a better passer, he instantly becomes a more interesting offensive piece off the bench and potentially as a starter down the road. Hardy was intriguing playing both sides of the pick-and-roll, a spot he thrived at with the Ignite. Even though his 3.6 assists per game are solid, he’s even better at droning it to his guys than those numbers suggest.
Hardy’s biggest weakness right now is his lack of defensive impact for his team. Hardy has a plus wingspan and good strength and size to be a solid defender, but he has so many mental lapses on that end of the floor that he’s not effective at all at that point. He has so many possessions where somebody blows past him and he just kind of… stands there. At the last minute, Hardy has a tendency to reach in and unnecessarily foul. Hardy has some lazy attributes that will need to be coached up at the next level on that end of the ball.
Because of his lack of explosiveness above the rim outside of a few fun dunks, Hardy really struggles at the rim. I spoke earlier today of how poor Aminu Mohammed’s rim percentage was and he shot over 11% more than Hardy did from that point on the floor. Hardy has no issue at all getting to that point on the floor, bulldozing guys on his way there, but finishing the shot is obviously the more critical function and he fails to do so. This is a guy that will start his career as a guy that relies on tough jumpers falling which can be scary for front offices pining to select him.
The best pro comparison I have for Hardy is something between a Tyler Herro and a Lou Williams, a guy that will score a ton early on in his career and potentially play himself into the top tier of sixth men in the league. However, if the passing traits and the defense ever come along, Hardy has the potential to end up as a top-10 guy from this class and a starter.
In all, Hardy went from being a guy that began the season as a consensus top-five pick to being somebody that many mocks are having a hard time buying into. But I’ll leave you with this question: what changed? He’s the same player now that he was then and he flashed room for growth. Ultimately, Hardy is yet another tough evaluation in a class full of them.