2022 NBA Draft Breakdown - Patrick Baldwin Jr.
A rollercoaster of a collegiate season has Pat Baldwin Jr. looking on the outside in of the first round. Why?
If Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. is selected in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft, he may have the worst resume of any first-round player in the last 20 years. I was a huge fan of Baldwin’s decision to play with his father this past season… until I saw the caliber of play of his teammates. Ultimately, Baldwin’s Milwaukee team won just 10 of 32 games and Baldwin stopped playing for the team after just 11 games. Baldwin, a top-five high school recruit, averaged 12.1 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 34.4% from the floor and 26.6% from downtown on nearly six attempts per game. This wouldn’t be so concerning if Milwaukee’s strength of schedule wasn’t one of the worst in NCAA D1 basketball, the team literally played the worst of the worst.
Coming out of high school, Baldwin’s high ranking was well-deserved. Baldwin is a 6-foot-10 forward who can get hot and shoot the leather off the ball. Baldwin was drawing comparisons to Klay Thompson for the way he could shoot the ball and was doing so with a ridiculous frame.
Despite the fact that his college stats are so poor, I firmly believe that it can be somewhat excused by the fact that his teammates didn’t put Baldwin in the best spot to succeed. Baldwin truly is an elite shooter even if the stats didn’t show it and he has the touch to succeed at the next level. His form is almost too good to be true, not dipping and getting the best arc possible with a tremendous follow-through on every attempt. Baldwin can be an elite catch-and-shoot guy from anywhere on the floor, showcasing that in a game against Robert Morris where he hit 6 of 6 threes.
Unfortunately, that game is his only opportunity to see his shooting hit at the collegiate level. Outside of that game, Baldwin shot just 18.9% from deep. 35.2% of the threes he made this season came in that one game.
When you evaluate Baldwin, you almost have to treat him like a high school prospect. It’s just hard to watch how little he had plays set for him at Milwaukee and he didn’t get to demonstrate just how lethal a shooter he is. Baldwin’s height and wingspan make his shot form all the more impressive and he ended up registering the second-highest standing reach at the NBA Combine. Baldwin can play off screens and is a solid movement shooter, and he’s also capable of getting his feet set quickly. I’m also intrigued to see how Baldwin’s pull-up game comes along, something he showed flashes of in college.
Baldwin isn’t just a pure three-point shooter. There is a tough bucket-getter somewhere in there and he’s capable at the rim. Baldwin thrives off the ball, also able to make high-level cuts for easy baskets. In all, Baldwin is a mismatch as a scorer anywhere on the court: from the three-point line to the post, Baldwin is really hard to guard.
There’s some defensive potential with Baldwin due to his size, where he’s able to disrupt passing lanes and his ability to recover well. Because he’s able to get up vertically, Baldwin is an interesting shot-blocking prospect.
Ultimately, Baldwin’s evaluation depends on how much you buy the shot consistency from college carrying over to the league. If you believe he will look more like his high school self, his other shortcomings are easier to look over. Baldwin is a subpar athlete in spite of having a good frame and he didn’t test well athletically at the combine outside of his purely physical measurements. Baldwin will get beat one-on-one quite often at the next level and even though he can block from behind, you can’t realistically rely on that for every possession.
I’ve had Baldwin just outside the first round but if his shot ends up being truly elite, this could be a guy that I regret not having higher. Baldwin is in that tier of young guys who could be selected at the end of the first or at the beginning of the second. It’s a shame that Baldwin didn’t get a chance to play with higher-level prospects in college, because he was a consensus lottery pick before his time at Milwaukee. If a team gets Baldwin in the second round, it will be a steal.