2024/25 NBA Roster Battles to Watch, Predictions
Almost every NBA team has at least one roster move seemingly in the works. What direction will they pick with each?
NBA teams across the league are gearing up for the start of the regular season by evaluating their training camp rosters. Each year, there’s a flurry of movement as teams have to make cuts ahead of when waivers would clear before the start of the regular season. There’s usually one or two waiver claims each season, and training camp players wind up being converted to two-way contracts en masse.
In this article, I’m evaluating the decisions all 30 teams have to make before the start of the regular season as it pertains to the back end of their roster. This is not meant to be a speculative article on the top names a team might try and trade for this. This is a realistic prediction of how teams might handle their developmental spots moving forward.
Before we begin, here are a few things to keep in mind:
Two-way contracts are referenced often in this piece. NBA teams are allotted three two-way players who aren’t a part of their main 15-man roster. These three players are limited to 50 NBA games apiece (or 90 combined if a team has 14 or fewer players), they must be in their third year or younger to be eligible, and they do not qualify for the playoffs.
Two-way contracts can be swapped out at any time at no tax cost or impact to salary cap.
Teams can sign a maximum of 15 players to standard contracts. They can dip below 14 players, but for only a limited period of time during the season. Most teams will likely aim to roster at least 14 players by close to the start of the season. If they have ample cap room, they’ll likely keep 15.
For the purposes of this exercise, guys on fully non-guaranteed contracts are not included in roster counts unless reporting is actively suggesting they’ll make the team (i.e. Markieff Morris in Dallas, Cole Swider in Indiana) OR they spent last year with that team as a developmental guy and are guaranteed to make the team (i.e. Ricky Council IV in Philadelphia).
Boston Celtics
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Celtics’ decision at the NBA’s cut-down deadline is straightfoward. Does Lonnie Walker IV do enough to make the initial 15-man roster? Of course, Walker was one of the biggest bargains in the free agent market this year, signing a non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 contract after averaging 9.8 points and making 88 starts across his six-year NBA career thus far.
It’s not often that you’re able to secure that kind of production on a non-guaranteed deal, but in the age of the new CBA where every penny counts, back-of-roster players are getting squeezed. Walker’s done his part, averaging 7.3 points on 42.9% shooting in four preseason games. But it ultimately may come down to something he can’t control. Boston’s money.
It would cost Boston roughly $8-10MM this year in tax penalties to keep Walker on as their 15th man. They’re already over the second apron, so even having his contract count for just a few thousand each day is more costly than it appears.
Prediction: Walker’s on an Exhibit 10 contract. There’s always the danger that another team claims him, but it’d be a bit surprising to me to see another team do that after he didn’t get signed until late August. The Celtics will probably opt to save their money and circle back to Walker at some point during the season as he collects his $77.5K bonus for suiting up with the G League’s Maine Celtics. Since he’s likely to be in their system anyways, they may not feel they’re risking losing him, even if being an affiliate player doesn’t protect one from being poached.
P.S. Walker isn’t eligible for a two-way contract for the Celtics — or any team — because those players have to have three or fewer years of NBA service to qualify for one. There’s a chance one of Jay Scrubb or Ron Harper Jr. grabs a two-way slot, but JD Davison and Drew Peterson have played well in the preseason and Anton Watson was just drafted.
***Post cut-down update: The Celtics waived Walker before the cut-down deadline. He also wasn’t claimed. Score: 1/1.
Brooklyn Nets
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 1
The Nets have a handful of interesting players on Exhibit 10 deals, which are eligible to be converted to two-way contracts if that player has three or fewer years of accrued service. Killian Hayes signed on to a training camp deal after not catching on with another team following his being cut from the Pistons last year. However, since he’s not eligible for a two-way, the most realistic options to claim one comes down to former second-round picks Tyrese Martin and Amari Bailey.
While there’s a chance Brooklyn opts to claim a two-way player from elsewhere — or make an outside signing — Martin’s been the most impressive in the preseason. One shouldn’t read into preseason statistics in terms of point production to determine how a team favors a player. However, the amount a player is suiting up for a team and the lineups they’re participating in can give you a glimpse into how that team views them.
For Martin and Bailey, it’s as seemingly simple as this: Martin is averaging twice as many minutes in the preseason and is participating in lineups among fellow two-way player Jaylen Martin and backups like Noah Clowney and Shake Milton.
Outside of their two-way slots, it’s certainly possible Brooklyn looks to move one of their vets before the opener, but I’d doubt that at this juncture.
Prediction: The Nets convert Tyrese Martin’s Exhibit 10 contract into a two-way contract and wait to make any trades until closer to the New Year.
***Post cut-down update: The Nets waived their other camp guys and indeed converted Martin. Score: 2/2.
New York Knicks
Open standard roster spots: 3
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Knicks shook up their roster in a big way by acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns. They had to jump through several hoops to make that deal work, including agreeing to terms on Duane Washington Jr.’s buyout from Partizan, just so he could be signed and traded before rejoining the overseas club afterward.
That left New York’s depth somewhat depleted, opening up two roster spots by sending out three players and acquiring just one. However, their path forward is relatively simple.
They have Landry Shamet, T.J. Warren and Chuma Okeke on summer contracts. Warren and Okeke are on Exhibit 10s which, as we’ve discussed, provide players a bonus for suiting up for that club’s G League team. Shamet, on the other hand, is signed to what’s known as an Exhibit 9 deal. That’s a straight up summer contract that provides protections for the team from a player’s salary becoming guaranteed in the event of an injury.
Most, if not all, Exhibit 10 contracts contain Exhibit 9 language, but the opposite isn’t true. That means those players don’t receive a bonus for playing in the G League and those contracts can’t be converted into two-way deals.
Shamet has long been reported to be the favorite to earn a contract with the Knicks. Since they’re ever so close to crossing into the tax, they’ll almost certainly keep their 15th spot open. That theoretically paves the way for one of Warren or Okeke to claim that spot. However, because they’re league veterans, it’s significantly cheaper for the Knicks to sign a rookie for their 14th roster spot (about half the cost).
That means one of Kevin McCullar or Ariel Hukporti (two Knicks 2024 second-round picks signed to two-ways) are major favorites to have their two-way contracts converted to standard deals.
Prediction: Shamet gets the 13th slot, as expected. Warren and Okeke are cut but suit up for the G League team. Warren is a tough cut because he’s played well in the preseason, but the Knicks have needs elsewhere. Hukporti ends up being converted over McCullar. The Knicks’ need for backup center depth is well known and Hukporti is a cost-effective, young option there. He’s played many minutes in the preseason while McCullar has dealt with an injury.
Converting either Hukporti or McCullar opens up a two-way slot for the Knicks. They could choose to claim another player elsewhere or sign someone else entirely. Jacob Toppin occupies the third slot. One name to keep in mind: Dmytro Skapintsev. Skapintsev spent time with New York last season and actually saw minutes at the NBA level with the Knicks dealing with frontcourt depth issues. He’s currently signed by Boston on an Exhibit 10, so they could claim him and convert his contract if they so chose.
***Post cut-down update: The Knicks are boldly only entering the season with only 12 players under standard contracts. According to various reports, they’ll plan to bring back Landry Shamet and convert one of their two-way players (with the favorite being Ariel Hukporti). Even though my prediction feels likely to come true, I’ll hold off on adding points until that happens. Score: 2/2.
Philadelphia 76ers
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Sixers already made their two-way change off of the offseason, adding Lester Quinones and moving off David Jones. I think the Sixers like their two-way guys, so I’d be surprised to see any further moves there.
While Philadelphia does have an open roster spot, they’re close to the second apron (around $6MM under), so it doesn’t make a ton of sense to fill their 15th spot for now. Isaiah Mobley and Judaz Mintz are intriguing Exhibit 10 options they have signed, but both still need some refinement in the G League. Mintz could be a claim candidate elsewhere, but he’s not a better option for a two-way than what the Sixers currently have signed.
Prediction: The Sixers leave their 15th roster spot open and keep the two-way guys they currently have signed.
***Post cut-down update: This is exactly what the Sixers did. Score: 3/3.
Toronto Raptors
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
Toronto is always difficult to predict in the way they maneuver their developmental spots. It feels as though Toronto has one of the truest roster battles out there for their developmental spots. Let’s break it down.
With one open standard spot, the Raptors could go in a myriad of directions. For one, they’re well below the first tax line (~$10MM), so they can and should have a guy in that 15th slot.
Bruno Fernando is an obvious choice here, as he’s the only one of Toronto’s non-guaranteed guys to not have Exhibit 10 language in his contract. However, while Jahmi’us Ramsey has an Exhibit 10 deal, he’s giving the Raptors a lot to think about given his minutes in the preseason, strong performances and the fact that he played on a 10-day deal here last year.
The Raptors also have D.J. Carton, Branden Carlson and Ulrich Chomche on two-way deals. Chomche is safe. He’s a recent rookie draft pick and team president Masai Ujiri is a fan. He hasn’t played much but is a major late bloomer and is a developmental swing.
Carton and Carlson are much less safe. Carlson in particular has barely played this preseason. The Raptors also have Jared Rhoden and Jamison Battle on Exhibit 10s. Battle, in particular, is performing stronger than anyone we’ve mentioned here in the preseason. I dubbed him the best shooter in the 2024 draft class and he’s shooting well over 50.0% from deep so far. He should make this team in some capacity.
Prediction: Ultimately, here’s where I’m at: Fernando makes more sense to me over Ramsey for the 15th slot. The Raptors have very little depth at the true center position, and Fernando brings a traditional rim-runner and protector behind Jakob Poeltl.
I have Rhoden getting cut and Carlson being released from his two-way. I’d give Battle Carlson’s two-way slot.
That leaves us with decisions on Ramsey and Carton. I’ll have to double check with league sources, but Ramsey technically has three years of NBA service. I’m assuming he is not eligible for a two-way. If that is the case, I’d keep Carton under contract. If Ramsey is eligible, Carton might be safer to funnel back to the G League. Ramsey could be a claim candidate if he’s released.
***Post cut-down update: I feel proud of this prediction coming true. Carlson was indeed waived, while Fernando did enough to make the team and earn a substantial guarantee. Score: 4/4.
Chicago Bulls
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way slots: 1
While the Bulls technically have 0 spots on their standard roster, they seem as though they’re basically holding auditions for Onuralp Bitim’s spot. Bitim shined in parts last season and is a worthy player to roster, but he hasn’t shot well in the preseason. It doesn’t help that the Bulls added several strong competitive candidates for that slot, including once-coveted young guard Talen Horton-Tucker, impressive former second-rounder E.J. Liddell and former G League Rookie of the Year Kenneth Lofton Jr.
Horton-Tucker is not eligible for a two-way, but Liddell and Lofton are. That makes it seem like Bitim and Horton-Tucker are in direct competition, while Liddell and Lofton are battling it out for the last two-way. Adama Sanogo and DJ Steward hold the other two-way slots, and both appear safe. Bitim is also eligible for a two-way. He began on such a contract last year, but he would need to be waived (and thus, claim eligible) and then re-signed on a two-way deal if they so chose. The Mavericks just did such a thing with A.J. Lawson.
Prediction: Horton-Tucker is outplaying Bitim in the preseason. While Bitim drew a recent start, Horton-Tucker received comparable minutes and is a Chicago native, giving him an inside track to the standard opening day roster, in my opinion.
Between Liddell, Lofton and Bitim, Liddell has the highest upside to me. That’s who I’d choose. Bitim may have the advantage if he’s waived though, since he played a big part on the team last year and knows the system. If the Bulls can’t decide, Steward could be cut and replaced since he hasn’t played much this preseason, but it would be surprising to see them load up on comparable forward depth and not invest in a developmental guard.
***Post cut-down update: Again, this was one of the more convoluted moves to come true. But Bitim was in fact waived, while Horton-Tucker made the team. Liddell earned the final two-way slot. Score: 5/5.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Cavaliers’ decision-making is straighfoward. They don’t have enough space under the tax to keep a 15th player and they don’t have any obvious release or trade candidates. While Emoni Bates’ injury status could theoretically expose him to waivers in order for a guy like Pete Nance to sneak in, I’d be surprised if they wanted to let Bates go.
Prediction: The Cavaliers hold pat and don’t make any back-end moves.
***Post cut-down update: This is exactly what happened. Score: 6/6.
Detroit Pistons
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 1
You may have noticed me mentioning that certain players are claim candidates throughout this piece. That’s because the Pistons are still armed with a plethora of cap space and have two open roster spots. Until the Kings dumped Jalen McDaniels, they were virtually the only team in the league with a realistic chance of claiming a standard player on waivers.
I thought there was a chance they’d claim Matt Ryan off waivers from New Orleans — as new general manager Trajan Langdon put in a claim for him as GM of the Pelicans last year — but that didn’t happen. It’s still possible he does wind up joining the team, but it won’t be way of waivers.
The Pistons don’t have any clear solutions on the roster. Exhibit 10 guys like Dereon Seabron, Tolu Smith, Aaron Estrada, Javante McCoy and Lamar Stevens either haven’t played much or haven’t shown enough to warrant rostering in either slot. Stevens is the most statistically accomplished of the group, but he’s averaging just 2.5 points and 9.2 minutes.
Prediction: Neither of the Pistons’ solutions at either roster spot are currently on the roster. Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith Jr. are still free agents and Detroit doesn’t have a true point guard on the roster behind Cade Cunningham (Jaden Ivey and Marcus Sasser currently project to fill that role). Fultz would make more sense as Smith has already played for the franchise. Otherwise, follow along for the rest of this article to see who else makes sense as standard or two-way claim candidates. If the Pistons do promote from within, Stevens and Smith, respectively, would be my picks.
Update: The Pistons waived former two-way forward Tosan Evbuomwan on Wednesday morning, further increasing the odds that they look outside the organization for their two-way guys, in my opinion.
***Post cut-down update: Again, this is what happened. They added Cole Swider and Alondes Williams on two-way contracts and somewhat surprisingly left their final roster slot open. I didn’t name specific players, but I was right in that they wouldn’t convert any of their then-Exhibit 10 players, who were all waived. Score: 7/7.
Indiana Pacers
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Pacers completed their back-end roster work when they waived Kendall Brown on Tuesday. He and Cole Swider were in direct competition for the final roster spot, but it appears Swider won out after an impressive summer league and preseason. James Johnson is also non-guaranteed, but the Pacers value his veteran presence and have often cut him and brought him back over the past two seasons to make room for trades.
Prediction: The Pacers stand pat.
***Post cut-down update: My first miss came here. I was pretty surprised Swider didn’t make the team, but I’m assuming he was actually in camp to see if he could push for Johnson’s spot, as opposed to Brown’s like I previously thought. Swider then immediately signed to the Pistons. Score: 7/8.
Milwaukee Bucks
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Bucks made a major shakeup last season by acquiring Damian Lillard right before the season. Such a shakeup is unlikely this offseason and, like much of the Central Division, their decision-making is straightforward.
Liam Robbins has played well on an Exhibit 10 deal, but there’s hardly anything forcing them to pick him over their incumbent guys in Ryan Rollins, Stanley Umude and Anzejs Pasecniks. Pasecniks came back to the NBA this season from overseas, so I’d be surprised to see him go. If the Bucks did replace someone with Robbins, Rollins is the most likely as an incumbent two-way. I don’t expect that though. Andre Jackson Jr. holds a partial contract guarantee but is almost certainly safe.
Prediction: The Bucks hold pat.
***Post cut-down update: Even though I specifically mentioned the possibility of Robbins being converted, that wasn’t my actual prediction. He was indeed converted to a two-way and Pasecniks was waived. Another miss here. Score: 7/9.
Atlanta Hawks
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Hawks don’t have moves to make on paper, but a handful of their roster decisions this offseason caused me to raise an eyebrow from that viewpoint. First of all, they acquired Cody Zeller and David Roddy in separate moves, both strictly for financial purposes. It doesn’t seem like either is a long-term fixture in the team’s plans.
Secondly — and this is just me reading too much into things — the Hawks landed two coveted Exhibit 10 guys. Kevon Harris had a reported agreement to join the Clippers, but backed out and signed with the Hawks. Maybe he never backed out, but if he did, would it not be to pursue a chance for a two-way deal? For what it’s worth, Exhibit 10 bonuses count the same for every franchise, so it’s not like he was promised more money to accept an Exhibit 10 for the Hawks as opposed to the Clippers. Daeqwon Plowden also impressed the Warriors in summer league enough to offer him a two-way, but they cut him before training camp to make room for Quinten Post. We’ll touch on this a bit later, but it was somewhat surprising to see an incumbent two-way in Pat Spencer stay on the roster. Plowden had fans in Golden State, so he almost assuredly had suitors elsewhere other than Atlanta. So why pick here?
Weirdly though, neither Harris nor Plowden have played much in the preseason, so I’m not sure they steal a two-way out from any of Atlanta’s guys currently on them: Dom Barlow, Seth Lundy or Keaton Wallace. Wallace is theoretically the least secure on that deal, but he’s played the same amount as Barlow and Lundy in the preseason.
Prediction: The Hawks cut Zeller and look to make claims. Roddy is safe to begin the year, as are all the two-way players. If the Hawks opt to promote a two-way contract player to Zeller’s spot, Lundy would be the favorite. In that specific scenario, either Harris or Plowden would be good options for the then-vacant two-way.
***Post cut-down update: The Hawks didn’t cut Zeller, but he’s away from the team according to their official roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s still the case sooner than later. I’ll hold off on fully scoring here until he plays again. In any case, I’d add a half point for correctly guessing they’d hold still with their two-way guys. Score: 7/9.
Charlotte Hornets
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 1
The Hornets helped facilitate the Towns trade to the Knicks, receiving Washington, Charlie Brown Jr. and DaQuan Jeffries as part of the deal. At first, I thought Jeffries had the inside track to a spot on the Hornets roster. However, he’s played less and less as the preseason has worn on, while Brown has played more and more.
Taj Gibson also holds a partial guarantee, but I’d be shocked if they cut him since he’s owed over $1MM already.
Charlotte’s two-way roster battle may also be open and shut. Only Keyontae Johnson remains on an Exhibit 10 deal, and he’s played well after impressing in the G League and being a second-round pick for the Thunder last year.
The biggest question mark remaining is what happens with Harry Giles. Giles has received a decent amount of preseason game time, but he’s no longer eligible for a two-way after closing last year on one with the Lakers. Does he push for the 15th spot over Brown and Jeffries? Does Gibson actually get cut?
Prediction: Brown wins out the final standard roster spot and Gibson remains safe. Johnson wins out the final two-way slot next to K.J. Simpson and Moussa Diabate. Jeffries and Giles are cut.
Note: It wouldn’t be shocking to see Brown also be cut for the Hornets to either maintain flexibility or claim someone on waivers they like. But Brown has played reasonably well in the prseason.
***Post cut-down update: Brown was cut and surprisingly to me Johnson did not win the final two-way slot. They instead claimed Jared Rhoden on waivers from the Raptors and converted him to a two-way. Score: 7/10.
Miami Heat
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Heat seemed like they had just one roster battle on their hands just a couple weeks ago. After an impressive summer league, many fans are clamoring for Isaiah Stevens to make the roster. Stevens — currently on an Exhibit 10 deal — is arguably the best passer on the team and helped power Miami to a summer league championship. However, Dru Smith isn’t getting cut. He’s played in the backup point guard role all training camp and preseason, and Miami rightfully values his defense and passing.
So what option does that leave the Heat with? Well, until they signed Nassir Little, it seemed like they’d lose Stevens. But why does Little have anything to do with this roster battle? Well, the Heat almost always open the year with just 14 players on standard deals. This year seemed to be no exception, but they managed to convince Little to sign to a non-guaranteed contract to compete for a roster spot. That means they were more open to holding a 15th player than previously thought. And to be fair, the Heat could hold Little (or any 15th player on a minimum deal) and not cross into the tax at the start of the season. That player’s contract adds up daily, so Miami easily could open the season with 15 and cut salary down the line without finishing the season over the tax line. It may come down to literal pennies on the dollar, but they could keep 15 guys if they so chose.
However, Little has barely played this preseason and hardly seems like a lock to be the 15th man. But as mentioned, Smith has been an invaluable piece to the lineup, both Keshad Johnson and Josh Christopher are safe on their two-ways, and Stevens has impressed. So what could the Heat do?
Prediction: Again, I’d need to check with league sources on the exact financial breakdown, but the Heat could leave Stevens on the 15-man roster to open the season and cut salary later down the line. Stevens wouldn’t count much against the cap on a daily basis. If they were willing to do it for Little, it would stand to reason that they could explore such an option with Stevens.
Still, I don’t expect this to be the route Miami takes. The most likely outcome is that the 17 players currently on standard or two-way deals are the 17 players who enter the regular season for the Heat.
***Post cut-down update: This is what the Heat did. I was somewhat surprised to see Isaiah Stevens go unclaimed, but he’ll begin the year in Sioux Falls. Score: 8/11.
Orlando Magic
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 2
Orlando isn’t making any changes to their 15-man roster, barring a surprising trade. However, they’re the only team in the league with two open two-way slots. With only Trevelin Queen holding a two-way deal, the Magic are seemingly holding an open competition for Jalen Slawson, Mac McClung, Ethan Thompson and Robert Baker for their open slots. Jarrett Culver is also on Exhibit 10 deal with the aforementioned names, but he’s not eligible for a two-way.
Prediction: McClung seems like a lock for a two-way, while Slawson and Thompson are on about equal footing for the other. I’d lean Slawson in this case, since he was a second-round pick just last year. The Magic could also look to claim someone here.
***Post cut-down update: The Magic converted McClung and left their other two-way slot vacant for now. Score: 9/12.
Washington Wizards
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 1
Washington continues to surprise me, and they’re actually one of the only teams in the league to have more than 15 players signed to standard deals. At a first glance, it would seem like cutting Jared Butler is the easiest way to get down to 15 standard players, since he’s the only one of the bunch to hold a non-guaranteed deal. However, Butler has been impressive dating back to last year and he fills a need.
The next place I looked was to either Anthony Gill or Patrick Baldwin’s spots. But Gill is beloved by the front office and holds a partial guarantee, while Baldwin is a former first-round pick who has also played well in the preseason. Johnny Davis, the Wizards’ former No. 10 overall pick, is also on the chopping block. His shot just isn’t falling heading into his third year with the team, and he’s playing alongside the Exhibit 10 players in the preseason.
As for the open two-way slot next to Justin Champagnie and Tristan Vukcevic, it’s hard to predict. I thought Leaky Black had the inside track to that spot up until last week, but he was waived. John Butler Jr., Taylor Funk and Mouhamadou Gueye are on Exhibit 10s, but I’m not convinced any are locks for a two-way since they all just recently joined the team.
Prediction: The Wizards either outright waive or trade Davis to another team, allowing all of Butler, Gill and Baldwin to remain on the team. The Wizards don’t convert any of their Exhibit 10 guys to a two-way deal and instead look elsewhere (though Butler Jr. would be the favorite if they did convert someone).
***Post cut-down update: This is a weird one, because they did explore trades for Davis (and Baldwin) extensively. This led to a weird situation where they signed RayJ Dennis to a two-way deal, weren’t able to make trades elsewhere on the team, were forced to cut Butler, then were able to re-add him on a two-way, leading to Dennis being waived. Davis wasn’t cut, but Butler stayed, so I’m adding a half point here. Score 9.5/13.
Dallas Mavericks
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Mavericks have zero spots open on their roster, but they have one of the more interesting decisions ahead of them. Their Exhibit 10 players have been extraordinary in the preseason, with Jazian Gortman averaging 12.7 points on .500/.538/1.000 shooting splits (second on the team in scoring) and both Emanuel Miller and Jamarion Sharp showing flashes.
However, with no open spots, that means cuts are coming.
Prediction: The Mavericks make no changes to their standard roster, but Gortman earns a two-way deal. Gortman replaces either Kessler Edwards or Brandon Williams. It’s a coinflip between which one Dallas chooses to kick off a two-way. Incumbent players are usually more in danger of being moved. Williams also accepted his qualifying offer, so it’s not like the Mavs negotiated a new deal with him. However, Edwards has yet to play this preseason. I’d predict Gortman beats out Williams, but Sharp and Miller are cut and make it through on waivers to the G League Texas Legends. If Edwards (who was signed in free agency) doesn’t pan out by midseason, I’d guess Sharp earns his two-way slot.
***Post cut-down update: Gortman did earn a two-way, but he didn’t replace Edwards or Williams. Surprisingly, AJ Lawson was waived after doing enough to earn a standard deal last year and re-structuring to a two-way earlier this month. I’m giving a half point here. 10/14.
Houston Rockets
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Rockets are in an interesting place. They have one open standard spot and, unlike most teams with cap space, are a playoff contender. They currently have both Jermaine Samuels and Nate Hinton signed to Exhibit 10 deals. Both players finished last season on two-way contracts, but were brought back on training camp deals to compete. N’Faly Dante, Jack McVeigh and Jeenathan Williams hold the team’s three two-way slots.
Out of the three two-way players, Dante seems to have the lightest grip on a slot. Samuels has also been impressive in the preseason and played well in the G League. However, the Rockets’ G League affiliate Rio Grande Valley Vipers acquired Samuels’ returning player rights, which is usually a precursor to that player suiting up in the G League for that season. Additionally, the Rockets moved to add Dante quickly following the draft.
Prediction: The Rockets keep their two-way players and stand pat on their 15-man roster in order to hold flexibility entering the season. I could see a reality though where McVeigh — who hit clutch shots in the preseason — earns a promotion to a standard deal while Samuels signs back to a two-way.
***Post cut-down update: The Rockets stood pat. Score: 11/15.
Memphis Grizzlies
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 1
The Grizzlies did the majority of their back-end roster work over the past couple of weeks when Derrick Rose retired by promoting Scotty Pippen Jr. to a standard, multi-year contract on Tuesday. Pippen was absolutely deserving of the promotion after an amazing season in the G League last year as well as a dominant 2024 summer league.
Since the Grizzlies are close to crossing the tax line, they won’t be adding a 15th player to their standard roster. What they have on standard deals is what they’ll enter the season with barring an unforeseen trade, so they’ll turn their focus onto the two-way contract slot that is now vacant due to Pippen’s promotion.
There’s not a more obvious fit to me than the 5-foot-8 Yuki Kawamura. While Miye Oni and Maozinha Pereira have more experience and have been equally impressive in the preseason, Kawamura is quickly proving to be one of the best passers in the world. He’s shown a tremendous connection with his teammates and is standing out in the preseason.
Prediction: The Grizzlies promote Kawamura to a two-way contract.
***Post cut-down update: The Grizzlies did promote Kawamura to a two-way contract. Score: 12/16.
New Orleans Pelicans
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
I believe all of New Orleans’ two-way players under contract are safe from being removed from said contract. All of Trey Jemison, Jamal Cain and Malcolm Hill have impressed at the NBA level and all three are playing up to standards (or above) in the preseason.
The Pelicans are close to the tax line, so keeping just 14 players on standard deals makes some level of sense. However, like the Celtics and Heat, some players are making it difficult for them to dip below 15 players. It seemed like the previously mentioned Matt Ryan, who the team cut and then re-signed to an Exhibit 9 deal, would compete for this slot. However, they waived him again recently. But then, the team signed Elfrid Payton, an NBA veteran and skilled passer.
Payton could wind up joining the team in the G League as per his Exhibit 10 deal, but he’s playing well in the preseason and giving the team something to think about.
Prediction: While Payton is impressive, he has G League experience and his Exhibit 10 contract signals he’s prepared to play there again. I’d be surprised if he was poached and the Pelicans aren’t hurting for ball-handling. They could probably safely cut him, allow him to collect his bonus, and then revisit signing him later in the season when his prorated minimum would be lower anyways.
***Post cut-down update: Payton was cut, so I’m giving myself a full point here. It is worth noting that they did cut Malcolm Hill and added Brandon Boston Jr. on a two-way, but that wasn’t part of my original prediction. Score: 13/17.
San Antonio Spurs
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 1
The Spurs have what appears to be a straightforward path entering the season. While more trades like Monday’s McDaniels acquisition could be possible before the start of the season, the 15 players the Spurs have under contract seem to all be secure. The Spurs have taken various measures to secure fringe guys like Charles Bassey, Sidy Cissoko and Sandro Mamukelashvili, so I’d be surprised to see any of them leave.
San Antonio signed both Brandon Boston Jr. and Malachi Flynn in the offseason, but neither has made a strong push for a roster spot. Flynn is ineligible for a two-way, but Boston could earn one if he closes the preseason on a strong note. However, Riley Minix has played the best among the team’s training camp players and, after a strong summer league, he seems to have leverage on winning the third two-way slot and joining David Duke Jr. and Harrison Ingram on such deals.
Prediction: The Spurs promote Morehead State’s Minix to a two-way deal after he averaged 9.0 points in summer league.
***Post cut-down update: Minix earned the final two-way slot, while the rest of San Antonio’s Exhibit 10 guys were cut. Score: 14/18.
Denver Nuggets
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Nuggets have questions about which young players will fill in for their departed production over the last couple years (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, etc.), but they won’t be changing the back end of their roster to seek those solutions. Two-way players PJ Hall, Trey Alexander and Spencer Jones are all safe to begin the season. None of the 15-man roster is an obvious cut or trade candidate.
Prediction: Denver holds pat.
***Post cut-down update: Denver stood still with their roster. Score: 15/19.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
To begin, all of Jaylen Clark, Jesse Edwards and Daishen Nix are likely to be retained on two-way deals. Most of the training camp players the Wolves have signed are simply ineligible for two-way deals. While it’s possible someone like Nix gets swapped out later, they seem to like him and he’d have the inside track over an outside player.
However, Minnesota’s decision-making got more interesting after acquiring Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Keita Bates-Diop while only sending out one player (Towns) right before the season.
Josh Minott looked like a potential outsider entering the offseason, as he played sparingly in his first two seasons after being a 2022 second-round pick. However, he’s exploded onto the scene this offseason and has reportedly been one of the team’s best players in camp. So far, it looks like that’s carried over to the regular rotation and he looks to be a key piece moving forward. Leonard Miller is a 2023 second-round pick, but it wouldn’t make sense to move him after his impressive G League stint last year and the success they found with being patient with Minott. Only free agent signing PJ Dozier has a partial guarantee, but he’s on the book for at least $1MM, so it’s not like they’d be saving much by cutting him. Additionally, Dozier was an early July signing and has a fan in general manager Tim Connelly.
Prediction: All of this is to say Bates-Diop is the most obvious cut candidate. While his contract is guaranteed, the Wolves saved some money by moving off Towns and they can take the hit. All of their other fringe guys are simply too valuable or are younger than Bates-Diop. I like Bates-Diop though, and think he’s a worthwhile look as a claim candidate.
***Post cut-down update: The Wolves took a bit of a cap hit by failing to trade Bates-Diop, and he was cut like I predicted. Score: 16/20.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Thunder, like the Rockets, don’t have to be in a rush to fill in their roster. While they have space under the tax to bring in a 15th player, they could easily leave it open past the cut deadline for potential waiver claims. They could also leave it open into the season for trade flexibility. However, as a contender, I don’t think it would hurt for them to look into adding someone sooner rather than later. They drafted Nikola Topic, but the rookie guard is expected to miss the season.
That gives the Thunder just 13 players who are healthy on the standard roster, so it would potentially behoove them to fill that in a little as they make a push for a title.
If it were up to me, I’d go ahead and convert impressive rookie Ajay Mitchell to a standard contract. I had a first-round grade on Mitchell and think he’s outright one of the, if not the very, best player on a two-way deal right now. He’s averaged 13.5 points in the preseason.
Prediction: The Thunder convert Mitchell to a multi-year standard contract. Cormac Ryan, Buddy Boeheim and Malevy Leons are all on Exhibit 10 contracts, but Leons has been the most impressive by far (Boeheim isn’t official yet, for what it’s worth). Leons should get a two-way contract if Mitchell is promoted.
***Post cut-down update: I missed here, but I wonder how much the Isaiah Hartenstein injury played into things. The Thunder revisited Alex Reese by giving him a standard deal after waiving him. If the plan all along was to keep him, they would not have cut him in the first place. Additionally, Leons played well in the preseason and survived multiple rounds of cuts, which leads me to believe they had something in mind for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is revisited, but for now it’s a miss. Score: 16/21.
Portland Trail Blazers
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Trail Blazers caught my attention when they added Devonte’ Graham this offseason to a training camp deal. While they have plenty of cap space, I didn’t see an obvious cut candidate, and he’s not eligible for a two-way deal. However, he’s signed to an Exhibit 9 deal, which indicates they planned to give him a chance to fight for a standard contract.
However, Graham hasn’t hit a field goal in the preseason. Unless he really turns it around with a standard performance, I don’t see who he’d take a roster spot from. Dalanto Banton is the only other player who isn’t fully guaranteed, but he’s been phenomenal since the Blazers acquired him.
Prediction: Graham is waived and the Trail Blazers stand pat.
***Post cut-down update: Graham was indeed waived and the Trail Blazers didn’t make any other moves. Score: 17/22.
Utah Jazz
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
There’s very little drama involving the Jazz’s end-of-roster planning. They only have one player signed to an Exhibit 10 deal — Justin Lewis — and he hasn’t appeared in a preseason game yet. Their three two-way guys are safe now, including Jason Preston, Oscar Tshiebwe and Micah Potter.
Prediction: The Jazz stand pat.
***Post cut-down update: The Jazz didn’t make any other moves at the deadline. Score: 18/23.
Golden State Warriors
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
The Warriors had an interesting offseason in managing their two-ways. As mentioned before, they had Plowden signed to a two-way, with Reece Beekman and Spencer in the other two slots. Spencer was a holdover from last season, which historically has less security than newly signed players. What is eyebrow raising about this, though, is that the Warriors allowed rookie Quinten Post to remain unsigned for a long time before eventually inking him to a two-way and replacing Plowden with him. If they knew they would sign Post, I’m curious why they offered Plowden such a deal in the first place. My best guess is Spencer impressed more in offseason workouts. For what it’s worth, I’m a major fan of Spencer’s and as a Northwestern guy, I’m biased toward him making Golden State’s roster. However, I’m still curious to see if he gets lapped by another player, and that’s the reason Post took Plowden’s spot.
Moving beyond that, the Warriors have Kevin Knox, Gui Santos and Blake Hinson signed to non-guaranteed contracts. Santos has been in place on a cheap deal that pays him only $1.9MM this season, allowing the Warriors to save money and stay below the tax line.
A team that’s only approximately $500K from crossing the first apron, the Warriors will have to be careful with how they maneuver their roster. Knox seems unlikely to make the 15-man roster, since he’s a veteran and would be more costly than Santos. That leaves the question of what happens to Hinson. Originally signed by the Lakers on a two-way, he was recently replaced by Christian Koloko. He had a bevy of suitors, but wound up with the Warriors. Does he steal Spencer’s two-way? Does he earn a standard rookie contract over Santos for about the same amount of money?
Prediction: The Warriors stand pat and Hinson joins the G League affiliate in Santa Cruz.
***Post cut-down update: This is exactly what happened. Score: 19/24.
Los Angeles Clippers
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 1
The Clippers could theoretically open up a standard roster spot if they found a suitable trade for P.J. Tucker as he’s away from the team. However, the two sides have had a complicated relationship for some time now, and if Tucker’s $11.5MM contract had suitors at a reasonable trade cost, he would’ve been moved by now.
That turns our attention to the Clippers’ two-way contracts, which appears to be a simple decision. Head coach Tyronn Lue recently referred to center Kai Jones as the team’s backup center with Mohamed Bamba dealing with an injury. While Jones is signed to just an Exhibit 10 now, he was with the team last year and it’s telling that Lue holds him in a high regard. Jones has played well in the prseason. While players like Alondes Williams have also impressed, Jones seems to be the favorite.
Prediction: The Clippers promote Jones to a two-way contract alongside Jordan Miller and Trentyn Flowers.
***Post cut-down update: Jones was promoted to a two-way deal. Score: 20/24.
Los Angeles Lakers
Open standard roster spots: 0
Open two-way contract slots: 0
Outside of drafting Dalton Knecht and Bronny James, the Lakers’ biggest outside acquistion this summer was signing Christian Koloko. While reports are always going to circulate the Lakers, it will be hard for them to pull off a trade before the season.
Their biggest remaining decision is determining whether they want Quincy Olivari (who’s on an Exhibit 10) or Armel Traore (who currently holds it) to have their last two-way slot.
Prediction: The decision between Olivari and Traore could be a coin flip. The Lakers were quick to pick up Traore after the draft and they kept him over Hinson, but head coach JJ Redick specifically complimented Olivari. Whoever is waived is likely to join the South Bay Lakers. If I had to pick today, I’d stick with Traore, who I had higher on my draft board.
***Post cut-down update: I’m giving myself a half point for recognizing that Olivari was at the very least under heavy consideration for a two-way. He beat out Colin Castleton for the final spot. Score: 20.5/25.
Phoenix Suns
Open standard roster spots: 1
Open two-way contract slots: 0
Like the Celtics, Heat and Pelicans, the Suns have an interesting decision to make in regards to carrying a potential 15th rostered player. Frank Kaminsky is making life difficult for the Suns right now, as he looks impressive in his journey back to the league. Some reporting suggested Kaminsky won out the spot already, but I believe that to be errant as of now, considering he’s on an Exhibit 10 and the Suns are in a dire financial spot.
While the Suns could decide to keep Kaminsky going into the year, he would be more expensive than the $8-10MM in tax penalties it would cost the Celtics to keep a younger Walker. Just for reference, the Celtics are just about $7MM over the second apron. The Suns, by contrast, are roughly $31.5MM over. I’d need to do the exact math, but that would be a significant amount more than $10MM in tax penalties to keep Kaminsky.
Prediction: While I’m sure the franchise values Kaminsky and he’s been very impressive in the preseason, I still think it’s too early to say he’s won out the final spot. However, like the Heat, Celtics and Pelicans, they would be paying him by the day, so it’s not like they’d incur those tax penalties right away. I still lean toward the Suns ultimately cutting Kaminsky, letting him collect his G League bonus, then revisiting their roster and his willingness to return on a minimum deal later on in the season.
***Post cut-down update: Kaminsky was in fact waived. Score: 21.5/26.
Sacramento Kings
Open standard roster spots: 2
Open two-way contract slots: 0
By moving Jalen McDaniels, the Kings opened up just under $5MM under the first tax apron to make some end-of-roster moves. Some reporting suggested the team could look to make a blockbuster before the season, but I’d be somewhat surprised if they landed someone like Zach LaVine, Brandon Ingram or Kyle Kuzma in the coming days. If that does happen, this equation obviously changes.
I feel as though the McDaniels move was to open more flexibility at the end of the roster. Isaac Jones and Isaiah Crawford leapfrogged McDaniels at the backup wing/forward spots, and I think both are worthy candidates to have their two-way deals converted to standards. Orlando Robinson, who holds a $500K partial guarantee, is also much more likely to make the team.
This also seems like maneuvering to keep USC’s Boogie Ellis, who made a drastic climb from the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament to the NBA Combine, on a two-way deal. NBA veteran Terry Taylor could be an option as well.
Prediction: The Kings convert one of Jones or Crawford (Jones seems more likely, as of now) to a standard deal. Sacramento could then convert Ellis to a two-way deal and then either leave Taylor on the 15-man roster to begin the year on a non-guaranteed deal or leave the spot open to continue pursuing trades for some of those bigger aforementioned names.
***Post cut-down update: This is another miss, because they wound up using that open slot to sign Doug McDermott, which was about the last thing I expected. Score: 21.5/27.
Final conclusion: I feel solid in these conclusions, especially since I believe my final score will wind up maxing out at about an 81.7% success rate when it’s all said and done. I can live with some of the misses (Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Washington, etc.) because I at least was somewhat in line with the organization’s line of thinking.
The only real curveballs that I didn’t expect or mention in any capacity were Indiana, Charlotte and Sacramento.