ULTIMATE 2023/24 NBA SEASON PREVIEW, PREDICTIONS
A look at record, standing and player predictions and recaps for the 2023/24 season.
The NBA season is upon us. Just as every season, it feels as though the offseason went by both painstakingly slow and tremendously fast.
Below, I’ll be providing my standing projections, sleeper or breakout players, and some rationale. Having started this the… night before the season, I’ll be updating this as I go rather than publishing all at once. If you disagree, great! This season feels absolutely unpredictable and I can see several teams I have projected as playoff teams ultimately miss the playoffs and vice versa. The play-in range, in particular, is so difficult to pick. For instance, I love the Thunder and the Magic, but I can’t figure out where they exactly end up.
With that being said, take a look at my picks below.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Format = Projected Seed, Team, Projected Record
No. 1 seed: Denver Nuggets - 54-38
Added - Justin Holiday (free agency), Julian Strawther (draft), Jalen Pickett (draft), Hunter Tyson (draft), Jay Huff (two-way), Braxton Key (two-way)
Lost - Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, Thomas Bryant, Ish Smith, Jack White
Major injuries - Vlatko Cancar (out for the season)
Sleeper contributor - Braxton Key
Of course, any move the defending champions made would come under heavy scrutiny in the offseason. And sure enough, losing Bruce Brown became the talk of the town. But overall, I’m impressed with how much the Nuggets have been able to build the framework of a potential dynasty and the pieces they have developing in the wings have the potential to replace, if not improve on, Brown.
For starters, the young guys are going to step up and begin to contribute. We saw Christian Braun show flashes similar to Brown’s skillset, and they brought in multi-faceted guys who are older rookies via the draft. Julian Strawther has been dominating the preseason and I could see Hunter Tyson playing well in spot minutes.
Losing Vlatko Cancar to injury is a major storyline I felt was swept under the rug this year — he was poised for a larger role this year. I believe Peyton Watson is going to have a fantastic year and is well set up to be a big contributor but Braxton Key is my sleeper pick for this team as a two-way guy who is going to make fans fall in love with his hustle. For what it’s worth, Key has already seemed to win over the coaching staff.
All in all, the Nuggets have the best player in the world, one of the best point guards in the world who’s going to be motivated by the potential of a super-max contract, a stable core of rotation guys and a plethora of young guys ready to play. For me, that’s a recipe for success and it comes in the form of a No. 1 seed.
No. 2 seed: Minnesota Timberwolves - 50-32
Added - Shake Milton (free agency), Troy Brown Jr. (free agency), Leonard Miller (draft), Jaylen Clark (draft, two-way), Daishen Nix (two-way)
Lost - Nathan Knight, Taurean Prince, Austin Rivers, Matt Ryan, Jaylen Nowell
Major injuries - None
Sleeper contributor - Leonard Miller
Okay, okay. Put down your pitchforks. Look, I have to admit I even think this feels a bit ridiculous. But the more I thought about it, the more I fell in line with this team being an impressive regular season group.
When the Wolves traded for Rudy Gobert, I felt strongly they’d be a team capable of winning a ton of regular season games but struggling to adjust when teams go smaller in the postseason. They… never showed me that last season, but I’m buying in here on that thought process coming to fruition a year later.
At the end of the day, X-factor Anthony Edwards is the reason I’m so high on them winning in the regular season. He’s a superstar, ‘nuff said. Add in a more cohesive frontcourt led by Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, alongside one of the best defenders in the league in Jaden McDaniels, and I’m ready for them to make the next step.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton had the Wolves in the same position, and I have to say it opened my eyes. The more I look at this team, the more I like. They didn’t lose much. They have a full season of Mike Conley, re-signed Nickeil Alexander-Walker, added Shake Milton and Troy Brown Jr. and I’m high on Kyle Anderson.
Last note, I love the young guys they have in house here. Luka Garza has done so much to transform into an NBA player. Wendell Moore Jr. and Josh Minott could step up this year. Leonard Miller may not play much but I’m calling him my sleeper guy because I think he’s legitimately one of the most talented players from the 2023 draft class and I have no idea how he fell to the second round.
No. 3 seed: Los Angeles Lakers - 49-33
Added - Gabe Vincent (free agency), Taurean Prince (free agency), Christian Wood (free agency), Cam Reddish (free agency), Jaxson Hayes (free agency), Jalen Hood-Schifino (draft), Maxwell Lewis (draft), Alex Fudge (two-way), Colin Casleton (two-way), D’Moi Hodge (two-way)
Lost - Malik Beasley, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV, Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel, Mo Bamba, Shaquille Harrison, Tristan Thompson, Cole Swider, Scotty Pippen Jr.
Major injuries - None
Sleeper contributor - Max Christie
The Lakers did much better in the postseason last year than I thought they would, reaching the conference finals. My outlook of this team is so different than what it was a year ago, and credit is due to the front office for turning this team around, especially with a particularly effective 2023 trade deadline.
They brought back most of the core, such as D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. The Lakers added several intriguing free agents, though I’m not as high on any as much as the public consensus appears to be.
While I think the depth is still a work in progress, Los Angeles has the flexibility to make more moves at this year’s deadline. Also, look out for Max Christie to step up into a major role this season. He could very well end up as L.A.’s second or third-best bench piece.
No. 4 seed: Phoenix Suns - 48-34
Added - Bradley Beal (trade), Jusuf Nurkic (trade), Grayson Allen (trade), Drew Eubanks (free agency), Yuta Watanabe (free agency), Eric Gordon (free agency), Jordan Goodwin (trade), Keita Bates-Diop (free agency), Nassir Little (trade), Chimezie Metu (free agency), Bol Bol (free agency)
Lost - Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, Terrence Ross, Jock Landale, Ish Wainright, Landry Shamet, T.J. Warren, Darius Bazley, Bismack Biyombo
Major injuries - Damion Lee (out for multiple months)
Sleeper contributor - Jordan Goodwin
The Suns made not one, but two blockbuster trades this offseason, acquiring star Bradley Beal and then adding several rotation pieces by sending out Deandre Ayton. In all, they’re a much better team than last year even if the projected record doesn’t quite reflect that expected jump.
The thought process here is the Suns will rest players and face multiple smaller injuries. It would surprise me if all three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal played 65+ games, but if they do, then it’s expected they’d make a jump.
Jordan Goodwin is my sleeper pick here, as he’ll get point guard reps with Damion Lee out with an injury and he boasts elite Point Of Attack defense.
No. 5 seed: Memphis Grizzlies - 45-37
Added - Marcus Smart (trade), Derrick Rose (free agency), GG Jackson II (draft, two-way)
Lost - Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones
Major injuries - Steven Adams (out for season), Brandon Clarke (out for multiple months), Ja Morant (suspended)
Sleeper contributor - David Roddy
A few days ago, the Grizzlies being a top three seed in the Western Conference made more sense. But being without Steven Adams, who was ruled out for the season Sunday afternoon, as well as Brandon Clarke and Ja Morant for significant chunks of the season makes such a feat less likely.
Don’t get it twisted, Memphis’s depth is still outstanding. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are legitimate All-Star caliber players and they added former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart to the mix. Add in growth from the young guys and you have a recipe for success. I could see David Roddy, in particular, playing big minutes in the frontcourt.
This is likely a team that gets better as the season goes on but for now, they plummet a bit with all the injury issues they’re facing.
No. 6 seed: Golden State Warriors - 45-37
Added - Chris Paul (trade), Cory Joseph (free agency), Dario Saric (free agency), Brandin Podziemski (draft), Trayce Jackson-Davis (draft), Usman Garuba (two-way), Jerome Robinson (two-way)
Lost - Donte DiVincenzo, Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin, Ryan Rollins, JaMychal Green, Andre Iguodala, Anthony Lamb, Ty Jerome
Major injuries - None
Sleeper contributor - Trayce Jackson-Davis
The Warriors’ story of the offseason was adding Chris Paul to their ranks which, months after happening, still feels like an odd addition. I think they’ll make it work but the Warriors still have a major issue with size in their frontcourt. They didn’t add any veterans in the frontcourt outside of Dario Saric, who doesn’t address their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Trayce Jackson-Davis is going to shoulder a solid amount of minutes I presume, which is exciting. However, it’s worrisome that this team is a couple injuries away from being completely depleted. Of course, that’s the case for several teams, but with the amount of veterans on this team, it matters more.
Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody need to take the next step this season, something they’re both capable of, but will need to accomplish for this team to truly jump forward.
I like the Warriors’ chances to make an impact in the postseason but it’s going to be difficult to win big in the regular season if the injury bug strikes.
No. 7 seed: New Orleans Pelicans - 43-39
Added - Jordan Hawkins (draft), Cody Zeller (free agency), Kaiser Gates (two-way), Matt Ryan (two-way)
Lost - Josh Richardson, Jaxson Hayes, Willy Hernangomez, Garrett Temple
Major injuries - Trey Murphy III (out for multiple weeks)
Sleeper contributor - Dyson Daniels
The Pelicans are one of the most difficult teams to project. Through mid-December last season, they were 18-8. Mid-January, they were 26-17. Then they rattled off 10 straight losses and plummeted from a once-No. 1 seed to a 42-40 record. That came right off the heels of losing Zion Williamson to injury, as well as several smaller injuries to rotation pieces.
They’re bringing back largely the same team, though the injury bug already lightly struck emerging wing Trey Murphy III. This ranking could be absolutely too low if Williamson maintains his health and if the rest of the core, such as Dyson Daniels, Herb Jones and eventually Murphy take a leap as I expect them to. However, it could also be too high if Williamson, Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum miss a large chunk of time.
Ultimately, the Pelicans land in the middle of that in my rankings. Look for Dyson Daniels to take a major leap as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
No. 8 seed: Los Angeles Clippers - 42-40
Added - Kenyon Martin Jr. (trade), Kobe Brown (draft), Jordan Miller (draft, two-way), Josh Primo (two-way)
Lost - Eric Gordon, Jason Preston, Xavier Moon
Major injuries - None
Sleeper contributor - Kobe Brown
The Clippers do this every year. Every year, they look like one of the league’s deepest and most talented teams. Every year, an injury or two or three or 500 takes them out of contention. Like the Pelicans, so much is contingent on health with this team. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are one of my favorite duos in the league and it’s a shame the NBA and its fans were robbed of that duo in their prime.
Los Angeles stood pat in terms of its offseason, adding only Kenyon Martin Jr. via trade and Kobe Brown through the draft. Those two guys should have a major impact, and I’m bullish on Brown, who I had as a first-round talent through the entire draft process. He already got a fair shot at claiming the starting four spot that wound up going to Terance Mann.
The elephant in the room is the impending future of James Harden. The cost to acquire him seems minimal, but I understand the Clips wanting to hold Mann. Harden is still one of the league’s elite point guards (he led the league in assists last year!), so I’m all in on him helping this team, even if he plays next to Russell Westbrook.
In all, there are just too many question marks here for me to like. Sure, they could blow this prediction out of the water, but nothing in the past few seasons instills that confidence in me. Prepared to eat my words though.
No. 9 seed: Dallas Mavericks - 42-40
Added - Grant Williams (sign-and-trade), Richaun Holmes (trade), Dereck Lively II (draft), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (draft), Seth Curry (free agency), Dante Exum (free agency)
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Jaden Hardy
The Mavericks made a ton of moves and I’m a fan of almost all of them. Grant Williams is a major addition that can help somewhat fill the void left behind by Dorian Finney-Smith as a wing-stopper, even if I’m lower on Grant as an overall defender.
What makes me most excited about this team is the commitment to young pieces to surround Luka Doncic with. Dallas had my highest outright grade in the draft, grabbing a potentially elite rim-running, shot-blocking center in Dereck Lively II who, by the way, is starting in his first season. He’s still a work in progress, but this time is crucial.
Throw in Olivier-Maxence Prosper, who cost next to nothing to trade for, and you suddenly have an elite class. Josh Green and Jaden Hardy impressed me toward the end of last season and their growth is intriguing to monitor going forward.
As for vets, the team added Seth Curry, one of the league’s elite shooters. I’m fascinated too by the return of Dante Exum to the league.
The Mavericks had an elite offseason and moved in all the right ways. So why the placement? Well, the young guys are still young. While Prosper should make an impact right away, Lively is very much a project, so I’m not expecting him to immediately become say, a Walker Kessler. That’s not a bad thing! Doncic is going to miss games too, but now the team has surrounded him with an exciting future that he hasn’t really had since joining Dallas in 2018.
No. 10 seed: Sacramento Kings - 41-41
Added - Sasha Vezenkov (free agency), Chris Duarte (trade), Jalen Slawson (draft, two-way), Colby Jones (draft), Jordan Ford (two-way), JaVale McGee (free agency)
Lost -
Major injuries - None
Sleeper contributor - Sasha Vezenkov
Going on record to say this right now, Sasha Vezenkov was a phenomenal addition by the Kings. He’s going to help them in so many ways as a guy who can bring the ball down and pour in three balls. They also had an effective draft, getting Jalen Slawson on a two-way and Colby Jones, who could also sneakily make a splash.
Overall, though, the Kings are going to have an immensely difficult time attempting to replicate last season’s success. Vezenkov and Chris Duarte address some of Sacramento’s issues from last season, but they aren’t a cure-all.
It’s bold to predict a team that did so well last season to underperform, but so many things broke well for the Kings last year, particularly with health. If De’Aaron Fox (73 games in 2022-23) and Domantas Sabonis (79(!) games in 2022-23) miss time, this team looks significantly different.
Even though the seeding looks completely different here, it’s just a seven-win drop from where they finished last season. Look for Keegan Murray to build on an impressive rookie campaign.
No. 11 seed: Oklahoma City Thunder - 38-44
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Vasilije Micic
I really hate putting the Thunder here. This is a team that could blow away expectations and easily catapult themselves into the 50-win club. So why do I have them here? Well, at the end of the day, the Thunder are still a tremendously young team. While they have several ridiculously talented young pieces, I still think these things take time.
For starters, this isn’t an indictment of the talent on this squad. Jalen Williams is a future All-Star. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a fringe top-10 player in the league. Chet Holmgren is a special talent who is going to be exciting for years to come. Lu Dort is one of the best defensive wings in the league. Josh Giddey is phenomenal and Jaylin Williams is one of the best players in the league, if not the very best, at drawing charges.
Add in Cason Wallace, Vasilije Micic, improvements from Ousmane Dieng, as well as the other depth pieces they have, and there’s a reason people are excited for OKC.
So here’s the hold up. Again, they’re young. Every team above them has some assortment of veteran pieces to stabilize the rotation. That matters. Maybe the Thunder take off and win a ton in the regular season, where a veteran presence doesn’t matter as much, but I’m just not sure.
The Kings could fall out of the playoffs altogether and OKC could jump them. Feasible. The Clippers and Pelicans could face big injuries and miss out. So could the Warriors. There are so many avenues for the Thunder making the playoffs, but I’m going to unfortunately stick with them here for now.
No. 12 seed: Utah Jazz - 38-44
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Kris Dunn
The Jazz could have made the Play-In Tournament if they wanted to last year. Key distinction, if they wanted to. But they didn’t. Like the Mavericks before them, Utah punted the season for draft capital and in turn brought in a stellar trio in the form of Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh.
Utah also brought in John Collins, who I’ve always been a fan of, and it’s exciting to see how they implement him into their system. I expect significant growth from Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler (who is a fantastic dude, by the way).
But this season is about continuing to develop their pieces and seeing what sticks. They’ll give playing time to the kids as the season goes on, and probably fall just short of the postseason. They lack a true point guard right now, but I’m high on Kris Dunn and his ability to contribute, and felt he was one of the most underrated players in the league last year.
No. 13 seed: Houston Rockets - 35-47
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Jock Landale
The Rockets had a weird offseason that I didn’t like at first, but has since grown on me. Adding Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, Jock Landale and Reggie Bullock is major for a team which needed to take a step in the right direction desperately.
From a rebuilding standpoint, trading three former first-round picks (Usman Garuba, TyTy Washington Jr. and Josh Christopher) for scraps is a dumb move. It’s even dumber to do so to guys who showed several flashes. But when you consider that this isn’t a fantasy world and people’s jobs are on the line, it makes way more sense.
The Rockets might not make the playoffs, but they’ll look so much better on both ends of the ball next season. Going from a team stuck in the mud to one trending upward is exciting, and I expect Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, Tari Eason and Alperen Sengun to show explosive growth this year.
No. 14 seed: Portland Trail Blazers - 25-57
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Toumani Camara
No. 15 seed: San Antonio Spurs - 25-57
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Sandro Mamukelashvili
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 seed: Boston Celtics - 56-26
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Luke Kornet, Dalano Banton, Lamar Stevens all deserve nods here)
I don’t love the process of everything the Celtics did this year, but there’s little denying they improved on a title contending team by bringing in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.
The big key here is health, especially with Porzingis, who has played 70+ games just once in his eight-year career and has played in 60+ games just three times. However, he showcased so much last season that was swept under the rug in Washington, and they also bring in one of the best defenders in the league in Jrue Holiday.
Depth in the frontcourt is lacking after trading Robert Williams and the team sold its soul by trading away Marcus Smart, but it could and should ultimately prove to be the right move. Much like the Nuggets, the Celtics have several pieces who are ready to step into larger roles.
Svi Mykhailiuk and Sam Hauser are both shooters with decent size and Hauser is growing into a legitimate two-way player. Dalano Banton is a fun piece to bring along, while Luke Kornet, Lamar Stevens and Payton Pritchard can help offset some of the losses of Williams, Grant Williams and Smart. I also want to shout out Neemias Queta, who Boston can reliably lean on in pinch minutes and is an obvious candidate to be converted to a standard contract at some point this year.
The Celtics have the pieces to stop everybody else in the league. Is this the year they finally get over the hump? It sure seems that way.
No. 2 seed: Milwaukee Bucks - 52-30
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Andre Jackson Jr.
No. 3 seed: Cleveland Cavaliers - 50-32
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Ty Jerome
No. 4 seed: New York Knicks - 47-35
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Deuce McBride
No. 5 seed: Philadelphia 76ers - 46-36
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Jaden Springer
No. 6 seed: Miami Heat - 43-39
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Haywood Highsmith
No. 7 seed: Atlanta Hawks 42-40
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - A.J. Griffin
No. 8 seed: Indiana Pacers - 42-40
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Ben Sheppard
Most metrics aren’t as high on the Pacers as I am, but they seem like they’re here to play. An argument can be made that they’re still young, which I used as a counter for the Thunder and will use for the Magic, which is fair. However, Indiana has a plethora of effective veterans who may not be stars, but can help the connective tissue of this team, starting with free agent add Bruce Brown Jr.
While the futures of Buddy Hield and potentially T.J. McConnell are in the air in terms of their presence on this team, the rest of the team feels so cohesive and deep. There’s a legitimate case of the Pacers having 15 rotation guys on board, which can’t be said about many teams in the league.
Tyrese Haliburton is going to continue ascending to superstardom, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard all can capitalize on their developments, and players like Daniel Theis and Jalen Smith are criminally overlooked.
This is going to be must-watch TV, and the Pacers can push for a playoff spot, like they did last season before Haliburton’s injury.
No. 9 seed: Brooklyn Nets - 39-43
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Dennis Smith Jr.
This is by far the strangest team to project. The Nets are a team filled with some of the most elite role players in the league. Dennis Smith Jr. is one of the most terrific defensive guards I’ve seen in a long time. Add in Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, Lonnie Walker, Cam Johnson, Spencer Dinwiddie, you name it, there is tremendous depth everywhere.
That doesn’t mention either Mikal Bridges, who looked like an outright superstar after being traded in February, or Ben Simmons, who coaches continue to rave about throughout the season. Nicolas Claxton is a legit DPOY candidate, by the way.
Enough things could break the wrong way where this team falls out of the postseason picture, but I’m buying in on the two-way talent and depth of this team.
No. 10 seed: Toronto Raptors - 37-45
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Malachi Flynn
Another team filled to the brim with two-way talent, the Raptors feel like they’re working two different timelines right now. All reports indicated Toronto wanted to keep Fred VanVleet around, but then they lost him and replaced him with Dennis Schroder. I like Schroder a ton, but he is a vastly different player than VanVleet.
Scottie Barnes didn’t take the leap many hoped last season, but the Raptors are still bullish on the point-forward. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam survived an offseason marred by trade rumors, but it still felt like the Raptors don’t know what they want to be. They brought in lottery pick Gradey Dick but signed other veterans. It’s an interesting team, and I’m not sold on them moving in the standings much one way or another.
No. 11 seed: Orlando Magic - 36-46
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Caleb Houstan
No. 12 seed: Chicago Bulls - 35-47
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Julian Phillips
No. 13 seed: Detroit Pistons - 34-48
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Marcus Sasser
No. 14 seed: Charlotte Hornets - 30-52
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - JT Thor
No. 15 seed: Washington Wizards - 21-61
Added -
Lost -
Major injuries -
Sleeper contributor - Johnny Davis